CWE/933/2017 当前世界环境 0973-4929 2320-8031 Enviro Research Publishers CWE--37-00 Climate Change Impact Assessment for Aji Basin Using Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction of Climate Model Outputs 1 , College of Agricultural Engineering and Technology, Junagadh Agricultural University, Junagadh, India. 2016-08-31 10.12944/CWE.11.2.40 Volume 11 Volume 11 670-678 Abstract

For the future projections Global climate models (GCMs) enable development of climate projections and relate greenhouse gas forcing to future potential climate states. When focusing it on smaller scales it exhibit some limitations to overcome this problem, regional climate models (RCMs) and other downscaling methods have been developed. To ensure statistics of the downscaled output matched the corresponding statistics of the observed data, bias correction was used. Quantify future changes of climate extremes were analyzed, based on these downscaled data from two RCMs grid points. Subset of indices and models, results of bias corrected model output and raw for the present day climate were compared with observation, which demonstrated that bias correction is important for RCM outputs. Bias correction directed agreements of extreme climate indices for future climate it does not correct for lag inverse autocorrelation and fraction of wet and dry days. But, it was observed that adjusting both the biases in the mean and variability, relatively simple non-linear correction, leads to better reproduction of observed extreme daily and multi-daily precipitation amounts. Due to climate change temperature and precipitation will increased day by day.

关键字 Indian future climate Precipitation 温度 Bias correction Downscaling